Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos

Division: Business Studies

Location: Room 2.06, Hen Goleg

Telephone: 01248 38 3796

Email: kostas@bangor.ac.uk

Profile

Director of Research for the College of Business, Law, Education and Social Sciences.

Professor of Decision Sciences

Prof. Kostas Nikolopoulos Dr.Eng. ITP P2P, holds the Chair in Decision Sciences in Bangor Business School and is the Director of the forLAB forecasting laboratory (www.forLAB.eu); he also has several years of experience in the UK and Greece as Consultant and Software Engineer in projects with Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics, DoH, RevOil and the Treasury and Home Office (in Greece).

Qualifications/Memberships of Professional Bodies

P2P - Certified Prince2 Project Manager (Prince2 Practitioner), The Knowledge Academy, UK (2012)
ITP - International Teachers Program, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, USA (2011)
PhD (DEng) in Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece (2002)
PgCert in Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece (2000)
Chartered Electrical and Computer Engineer, Technical Chamber of Greece (1998)
BSc (MSc Equivalent) in Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece (1997)

Research

His research currently addresses the following Questions:

  • To what extent can we forecast the socio-economic Impact of Special Events? (like Catastrophes, Economic Crises, Legislation, Marketing Communications, Production Interruptions)
  • What is the Economic Significance of forecasting errors?
  • How can we use the Theta model in different non-OR contexts?
  • What are the benefits from non-overlapping Temporal Aggregation?

He has 211 research outputs, 42 of which are listed in ISI Web of Science with a sum of 346 cites and an h-index of 11 as of July 2014.

Students

Research Students:

  • Dr. Samantha Buxton has successfully defended her thesis in October 2013 under my supervision (second supervisor Dr. Marwan Khammash, University of Sussex; 1st year supervisor, Professor Phil Stern, Exeter University) on "Modeling and Forecasting Pharmaceutical Lifecycles" supported by a 125 Bangor University 3 year scholarship. Dr. Buxton is as of February 2014 a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Marketing in the School of Management in Swansea University.
  • Dr. Vasileios Bougioukos successfully defended his thesis in September 2013 under my supervision (second supervisor Professor Shanti Chakravarty) on "Facilitating Integrative Agreements through Fostering Trust in Negotiations between Labour and Management" supported by a 125 Bangor University 3 year scholarship.
  • Dr. Nicolas D. Savio has successfully defended his thesis in September 2010 under my supervision (second supervisor Dr Michael Keenan) on "Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies" supported by a 3 year ESRC/EPSRC award scholarship. Dr. N. D. Savio is as of August 2011 an Assistant Professor in Operations and Supply Chain Management in Manchester Business School.

PhD research topics I would like to supervise:

  • Irrational Behaviour in Negotiations
  • Motivating Judgmental Forecasters
  • Forecasting via Temporal Aggregation
  • Forecasting with the Theta Method
  • Forecasting Black Swans

Teaching

Undergraduate Teaching:

  • ASB-2416 Operations Strategy
  • ASB 3111 Operations Management

Postgraduate Teaching:

  • ASB 4601-4101 Research Methods
  • ASB 4904-4905 Applied Business Projects: Operations Management
  • One 3h workshop for the Pan-Wales DTC on "Applied Business Forecasting"

Executive Training:

  • ASB-9037 Research Methods - Chartered Banker MBA

Activities

External examiner:

Norwich Business School, Royal Docks Business School

Prestigious guest presentations:

Invited speaker – Korea University Business School, Stern School of Business, INSEAD

Publications

Demand Forecasting & Predictive Analytics

  • Syntetos A., Nikolopoulos, K., Babai, Z.M.., and Boylan, J. (2015) “‘Supply Chain Forecasting: a review of the last 30 years”, European Journal of Operational Research, Invited, forthcoming.
  • Petropoulos, F., Makridakis, S., Assimakopoulos, V. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2014) “‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting”, European Journal of Operational Research 237 (1): 152-163.
  • Thomakos, D.D. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2014) “Fathoming the Theta Method for a Unit Root Process”, IMA Oxford Journal of Management Mathematics 25 (1): 105-124.
  • Nikolopoulos, K. and Fildes, R. (2013). “Adjusting supply chain forecasts for short-term Temperature estimates: a Case study in a Brewing company”, IMA Oxford Journal of Management Mathematics 24(1): 79-88.
  • Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K., Spithourakis, G.P. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2013), “Empirical Heuristics for Improving Supply Chain Forecasting for intermittent demand SKUs”, Industrial Management and Data Systems 113(5): 683-696.
  • Babai, M.Z., Ali, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2012) “Impact of Temporal Aggregation on Stock Control Performance of Intermittent Demand Estimators: Empirical Analysis”, OMEGA: The International Journal of Management Science 40: 713–721.
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Assimakopoulos, V., Bougioukos, N., Litsa , A. and Petropoulos, F. (2012), “The Theta model: An essential forecasting tool For Supply Chain planning”, Springer-Verlag/ Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering 123: 431-437.
  • Spithourakis, G.P., Petropoulos, F., Babai, M.Z., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V., (2011), “Improving the performance of popular supply chain forecasting techniques: an empirical investigation”, Supply Chain Forum: an international journal 12(4): 16-25.
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Syntetos, A., Boylan, J., Petropoulos, F. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2011). “ADIDA: An aggregate/disaggregate approach for intermittent demand forecasting”, Journal of the Operational Research Society 62: 544-554.
    Crone, S. F., Hibon, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2011) “Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction”, International Journal of Forecasting 27 (3): 635-660.
  • Nikolopoulos, K. (2010) "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series". Applied Economics 42: 947–955.
  • Syntetos, A.A., Nikolopoulos, K. and Boylan, J. (2010) “Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: the case of inventory forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 134-143. [Times Cited: 10]
  • Syntetos, A.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R. and Goodwin, P. (2009). “The effects of integrating management judgment into intermittent demand forecasts”, International Journal of Production Economics 118: 72-81. [Times Cited: 27]
  • Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009), "Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement”, International Journal of Forecasting 25 (1): 3-23 [Times Cited: 43]
  • Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009), “Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders”, International Journal of Forecasting 25 (1): 32-34
  • Babai, M., Syntetos, A.A., Dallery, Y., and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009) "Dynamic Re-order Point Inventory Control with Lead-Time Uncertainty: Analysis and Empirical Investigation", International Journal of Production Research 47 (9): 2461–2483. [Times Cited: 10]
  • Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S., and Syntetos, A. (2008) "Forecasting and Operational Research – a Review". Journal of the Operational Research Society 59: 1150–1172. [Times Cited: 54]
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2007), "Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches". European Journal of Operational Research 180(1): 354-368. [Times Cited: 20]
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Bougioukos, N, Giannelos, K., Assimakopoulos, A. (2007) "Estimating the impact of shocks with Artificial Neural Networks". Springer-Verlag/ Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4669: 516–526
  • Pagourtzi, E., Metaxiotis, K., Nikolopoulos, K., Giannelos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2007) “Real estate valuation with Artificial Intelligence approaches”, in the Special Issue on " 30 Years of Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence: New Promises Towards the Internet Age" of the International Journal of Intelligent Systems Technologies and Applications, Vol 2 (1): 50-57.
  • Fildes, R. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2006) "Spyros Makridakis: An Interview with the International Journal of Forecasting". International Journal of Forecasting 22(3): 625-636. [Times Cited: 4]
  • Assimakopoulos, V. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). "The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting 16 (4): 521-530. [Times Cited: 37]

Forecasting Support Systems

  • Spithourakis, G., Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2014) “Amplifying the learning effect via a specialized Forecasting & Foresight Support System”, International Journal of Forecasting, In press
  • Spithourakis,, G.P., Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V., (2014). “A systemic view of the ADIDA framework”, IMA Oxford Journal of Management Mathematics 25(2): 125-137.
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F., Metaxiotis, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2012) “A web Forecasting System supporting Policy implementation: the case of ‘Digital Planning’ in Greece”, International Journal of Business Information Systems, Vol 11 (4): 397-409.
  • Lee, W.Y., Goodwin, P, Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. and Lawrence, M. (2007) “Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks”. International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 377-390 [Times Cited: 12]
  • Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2007) “The process of using a Forecasting Support system”. International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 391-404 [Times Cited: 4]
  • Pagourtzi, E., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2006). "Architecture for a real estate analysis information system using GIS techniques integrated with Fuzzy theory", Journal of the Property Investment and Finance 24 (1):68-78. Winner of the 2005 EFG Eurobank-Propindex SA Prize for the Best Paper on Balkan Real Estate
  • Petropoulos, C., Nikolopoulos, K. Patelis, A., Assimakopoulos, V. and Askounis, D. (2006) “Tourism Technical Analysis System”. Tourism Economics 12 (4): 543-563.
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Metaxiotis, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2006) “eforecasting: challenges and opportunities”, in the Special Issue on "E-business in 21st Century Environments" of the International Journal of Business Performance Management 8(1) : 93-106
  • Maris, K., Metaxiotis, K., Pantou, G., Nikolopoulos, K., Tavanidou, E. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2004). “D-TIFIS: A decision support system for options trading”, Information Management & Computer Security 12 (1): 45-65.
  • Petropoulos, C., Patelis, A., Metaxiotis, K., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2003). “SFTIS: A decision support system for tourism demand forecasting”, Journal of Computer Information Systems 44 (1) 21-32. [Times Cited: 8]
  • Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2003). “Theta Intelligent Forecasting Information System”, Industrial Management and Data Systems 103 (9): 711-726. [Times Cited: 16]
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Metaxiotis, K., Lekatis, N. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2003). "Integrating Industrial Maintenance Strategy into ERP", Industrial Management and Data Systems 103 (3): 184-191. [Times Cited: 15]
  • Patelis, A., Nikolopoulos, K., Metaxiotis, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2003). "FORTV: Decision Support System for Forecasting Television Viewership", Journal of Computer Information Systems 43 (4): 100-107. [Times Cited: 1]
  • Tavanidou, E., Nikolopoulos, K., Metaxiotis, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2003). “eTIFIS: An innovative e-Forecasting Web application”, International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering 13 (2): 215-236.
  • Nikolopoulos, K., Metaxiotis, K., Assimakopoulos, V. and Tavanidou, E. (2003). “A First Approach to E-Forecasting: A Survey of Forecasting Web-Services”, Information Management & Computer Security 11 (3): 146-152.

Foresight

  • Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F., Bougioukos, V. and Khammash, M. (2014), “Relative performance of methods for forecasting Special Events”, Journal of Business Research, forthcoming
  • Savio, N. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2013) “A Strategic Forecasting Framework for Governmental Decision Making and Planning", International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2): 311–321.
  • Savio, N.D. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2010) “Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies”, International Journal of Public Administration 33(2): 88 – 97.
  • Savio, N.D. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009) “Forecasting Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies: working with semi-experts”, Foresight 11(6): 86-93.
  • Savio, N.D. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009) “Forecasting the Economic Impact of New Environmental Policies”, Foresight 11(2) : 7-18

Forecasting in Finance & Economics

  • Dimitrios Thomakos, Platon Monokrousos and Kostas Nikolopoulos (Editors) (2015), A Crisis Manual: A Retrospect of the Crisis and the Road to Recovery, Palgrave Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions – Edited Volume (Book)
  • Bozos, K., Nikolopoulos, K. and Ramgandhic, G. (2011) "Dividend signalling under economic adversity: evidence from the London Stock Exchange, International Review of Financial Analysis 20(5): 364-374
  • Bozos, K. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2011) “Forecasting the Value Effect of Seasoned Equity Offering Announcements", European Journal of Operational Research 214: 418–427
  • Bamiatzi, V., Bozos, K. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2010) “On the Predictability of Firm Performance via Simple Time-Series and Econometric Models: Evidence from U.K. SMEs”, Applied Economics Letters 17(03): 279 - 282.
  • Nikolopoulos, K. and Handrinos, M. (2008) “The future of credit unions in the united states: evidence from quantitative extrapolations”, Applied Financial Economics Letters 4(3): 177 – 182
  • Maris, K., Nikolopoulos, K., Giannelos, K. and Assimakopoulos V. (2007) "Options trading driven by volatility directional accuracy”. Applied Economics 39 (2): 253-260.
  • Petropoulos, C., Patelis, A., Nikolopoulos, K. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2005). “A technical analysis approach to tourism demand forecasting”, Applied Economics Letters 12 (6): 327-333.
  • Maris, K., Pantou, G., Nikolopoulos, K., Pagourtzi, E. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2004). “A study of financial volatility forecasting techniques in the FTSE/ASE 20 index”, Applied Economics Letters 11 (7): 453-457.