Dr Isabel Rosa

• PhD: Computational Ecology
  Imperial College London, UK,
• BSc: Forestry
  University of Lisbon,
• MSc: Natural Resources Management
  University of Lisbon,

I am a landscape ecologist with an active research programme on land use and land cover change modelling at multiple temporal and spatial scales. 

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) driven by rapid human population growth and increasing demand for agricultural and forest products has far-reaching implications. To assess and monitor changes in biodiversity, climate, ecosystem services and ultimately human well-being, LULCC is an essential layer of information that is used in a wide range of applications: species distribution modelling, risk assessments (e.g., floods, fire), ecosystem services change (e.g., provision, regulation and cultural), epidemiological studies (e.g., spread of infectious diseases), landscape planning (e.g., new dams or roads), agricultural and forestry productivity estimates (e.g., yields), among others. My active research programme is on developing and applying novel tools that can help policymakers know where and at what rate LULCC is occurring and is expected to occur under future scenarios, thus allowing them to anticipate its impacts, and develop preventive and/or adaptive measures. I am to use these tools to address critical conservation issues, such as understanding the impact of changing socio-economic dynamics (e.g., the peace agreement in Colombia); supporting the implementation of conservation and restoration policies (e.g., ecosystem restoration subsidies); and the planning of future infrastructure developments, with a strong emphasis on involving key stakeholders in the modelling process. Furthermore, the need for accurate LULCC projections and scenarios is validated by the focus of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), particularly the Scenarios and Models Expert Group, with whom I have been working. My research is highly interdisciplinary, and I have forged research collaborations with colleagues from across scientific disciplines (in particular: physical sciences, statistics, socio-ecology, computing, machine learning, conservation, remote sensing, and biodiversity), institutions and countries. 

The main goal of my research is to inform day-to-day decisions made by landscape managers and policy makers that can impact the sustainability and dynamics of landscapes worldwide, with particular focus on sustainable management of living natural resources. This is critical to address some of the greatest challenges of our world, such as climate change and sustainable food systems, in the perspective of continued human population growth. 

PhD students

[always looking for prospective students. Get in touch if you're interested in discussing project ideas.] 

PhD Supervision 

2019 - ongoing: Oboh Satur Okosun "The effect of fragmentation on ecosystem service delivery across a precipitation gradient – using geospatial technologies for sustainable development in Nigeria"

Internal Examiner

Lucia Watts

Theresa Bodner

Katie Davenish

MSc supervision

2018-2019 Michael Thomson "Current and future roads threaten biodiversity in Colombia" [main supervisor]

2018-2019  Gloria Triguero "Spatial relationship between intensity of armed conflict and forest cover change in Colombia " [main supervisor]

Interns (undergraduates)

2019 Mollie Kirk "Investigating trends in road network expansion in a biodiversity hotspot" [main supervisor], funded via Employability Scheme at Bangor University

Teaching

Undergraduates

DXX-2022 Quantitative Thinking [module organiser]

DXX-2000 GIS & Research Methods [contributor]

BSX-1030 Practical Skills 1 [contributor]

BSX-1031 Practical Skills 2 [contributor]

BSX-3701 - Honours project [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

 SNS Academic Tutorials Module [tutor]

Postgraduates

DXX-4257 Research Planning and Communication [contributor] 

DXX-4999 MSc Dissertation [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

DDL-4999 Distance learning disseration [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

Organiser of three introductory R workshops for postgraduate students:

• BangoR1 - Introduction to R
• BangoR2 - Data visualisation in R
• BangoR3 - R as a GIS 

Research Support for students and staff

Are you struggling with quantitative methods in your project? Would you like to discuss GIS or statistical methods with someone very keen on these topics? Send me an email and let's have a chat!  

2019

• E-pub ahead of printChallenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services
  Rosa, I., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C. A., Uurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Martins, I. S., Popp, A., Schipper, A. M., van Vuuren, D. & Pereira, H. M., 16 Dec 2019, In : Global Ecology and Conservation. e00886.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• E-pub ahead of printDrivers and projections of vegetation loss in the Pantanal and surrounding ecosystems
  Guerra, A., de Oliveira Garcia, F., Ochao-Quintero, L. M. O., Tarso Sanches deOliveira, P., Guariento, R. D. & Rosa, I., 9 Dec 2019, In : Land Use Policy.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• E-pub ahead of printGlobal patterns of forest loss across IUCN categories of protected areas
  Leberger, R., Rosa, I., Guerra, C. A., Wolf, F. & Pereira, H. M., 19 Nov 2019, In : Biological Conservation.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• E-pub ahead of printChange versus stability: are protected areas particularly pressured by global land cover change?
  Guerra, C., Rosa, I. & Pereira, H., 18 Oct 2019, In : Landscape Ecology.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedPathways of human development threaten biomes’ protection and their remaining natural vegetation
  Rosa, I. & Guerra, C. A., 19 Sep 2019, In : bioRxiv.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2018

• PublishedEvaluating Forest Protection Strategies: A Comparison of Land-Use Systems to Preventing Forest Loss in Tanzania
  Rosa, I., Hopcraft, G. & Rentsch, D., Dec 2018, In : Sustainability. 10, 12, 16 p., 4476.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedA protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
  Rosa, I., 2018, In : Geoscientific Model Development.
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2017

• PublishedAn ensemble of spatially explicit land-cover model projections: prospects and challenges to retrospectively evaluate deforestation policy
  Bradley, A. V., Rosa, I. M. D., Brandao, A. J., Crema, S., Dobler, C., Moulds, S., Ahmed, S. E., Carneiro, T., Smith, M. J. & Ewers, R. M., 1 Dec 2017, In : MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT. 3, 4, p. 1215-1228
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedMultiscale scenarios for nature futures
  Rosa, I. M. D., Pereira, H. M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L. A., Akcakaya, H. R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A. M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K. A., Harrison, P. A., Hauck, J., Hendriks, R. J. J., Hernandez, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S. I., Kim, H., King, N., Kok, M. T. J., Kolomytsev, G. O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C. J., Marquez, J. G., Meyer, C., Navarro, L. M., Nesshoever, C., Ngo, H. T., Ninan, K. N., Palomo, M. G., Pereira, L. M., Peterson, G. D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A. M., Seppelt, R., Settele, J., Sitas, N. & van Vuuren, D., Oct 2017, In : Nature Ecology and Evolution. 1, 10, p. 1416-1419
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial
• PublishedMultiscale scenarios for nature futures
  Rosa, I., Pereira, H. M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L., Akcakaya, HR., den Belder, E., Fazel, AM., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, KA., Harrison, PA., Hauck, J., Hendriks, RJJ., Hernandez, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Kolomytsev, SI., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, CJ., Garcia Marquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, LM., Nesshover, C., Ngo, HT., Ninan, KN., Palomo, MG., Pereira, LM., Peterson, GD., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, AM., Seppelt, R., Settele, J., Sitas, N. & van Vuuren, D., Oct 2017, In : Nature Ecology and Evolution. 1, 10, p. 1416-1419
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate
• PublishedSpatial and temporal dimensions of landscape fragmentation across the Brazilian Amazon
  Rosa, I. M. D., Gabriel, C. & Carreiras, J. M. B., Aug 2017, In : Regional Environmental Change. 17, 6, p. 1687-1699
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2016

• PublishedThe Environmental Legacy of Modern Tropical Deforestation
  Rosa, I. M. D., Smith, M. J., Wearn, O. R., Purves, D. & Ewers, R. M., 22 Aug 2016, In : Current Biology. 26, 16, p. 2161-2166
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedSimiVal, a multi-criteria map comparison tool for land-change model projections
  Bradley, A. V., Rosa, I. M. D., Pontius, R. G. . J., Ahmed, S. E., Araujo, M. B., Brown, D. G., Brandao, A. J., Camara, G., Carnerio, T. G. S., Hartley, A. J., Smith, M. J. & Ewers, R. M., Aug 2016, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 82, p. 229-240
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedClassification success of six machine learning algorithms in radar ornithology
  Rosa, I. M. D., Marques, A. T., Palminha, G., Costa, H., Mascarenhas, M., Fonseca, C. & Bernardino, J., Jan 2016, In : Ibis. 158, 1, p. 28-42
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2015

• PublishedThresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes
  Ochoa-Quintero, J. M., Gardner, T. A., Rosa, I., de Barros Ferraz, S. F. & Sutherland, W. J., Apr 2015, In : Conservation Biology. 29, 2, p. 440-451
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedModelling land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon: temporal changes in drivers and calibration issues
  Rosa, I. M. D., Purves, D., Carreiras, J. M. B. & Ewers, R. M., Jan 2015, In : Regional Environmental Change. 15, 1, p. 123-137
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2014

• PublishedThe transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models
  Rosa, I. M. D., Ahmed, S. E. & Ewers, R. M., Jun 2014, In : Global Change Biology. 20, 6, p. 1707-1722
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article

2013

• PublishedPredictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
  Rosa, I. M. D., Purves, D., Souza, C. J. & Ewers, R. M., 18 Oct 2013, In : PLoS ONE. 8, 10
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedUsing landscape history to predict biodiversity patterns in fragmented landscapes
  Ewers, R. M., Didham, R. K., Pearse, W. D., Lefebvre, V., Rosa, I. M. D., Carreiras, J. M. B., Lucas, R. M. & Reuman, D. C., Oct 2013, In : Ecology Letters. 16, 10, p. 1221-1233
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2012

• PublishedChanges in Size of Deforested Patches in the Brazilian Amazon
  Rosa, I. M. D., Souza, C. J. & Ewers, R. M., Oct 2012, In : Conservation Biology. 26, 5, p. 932-937
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2011

• PublishedGreenhouse gas emissions from shifting cultivation in the tropics, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
  Silva, J. M. N., Carreiras, J. M. B., Rosa, I. & Pereira, J. M. C., 18 Oct 2011, In : Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres. 116
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
• PublishedAtmospheric emissions from vegetation fires in Portugal (1990-2008): estimates, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis
  Rosa, I. M. D., Pereira, J. M. C. & Tarantola, S., Mar 2011, In : Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 11, 6, p. 2625-2640
  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2019-2021: "The missing link: incorporating the role of biological diversity into projections of ecosystem services.", supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the National Science Foundation DBI-1639145, co-PI

2018-2020: “Global Land-use Patterns and Changes – Mapping Key System Drivers for Integrative Biodiversity Science” funded through the Flexpool scheme of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), co-I.

2016-2018: “Using Land Cover Change Models to Address Important Conservation Issues (LCCMcons)” funded through Marie Curie Individual Research Fellow at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, Germany, PI.

2010-2013: PhD Scholarship: 3-years and 3 months PhD Studentship from Microsoft Research of Cambridge and Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London.

Media and Science outreach:

2019 October

Science https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/10/split-decisions-how-brexit-has-taken-toll-five-researchers

2019 September

BBC Future http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190911-what-would-happen-if-all-the-worlds-trees-disappeared?

2016 September and October

Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/zombie-carbon-emissions-haunt-the-planet 

Calgary Herald: http://calgaryherald.com/news/world/deforestation-will-pump-billions-of-tonnes-of-emissions-into-earths-atmosphere 

Phys.org: http://phys.org/news/2016-07-effects-tropical-deforestation-felt-years.html 

Science Daily: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160728143204.htm 

Climate News Network: http://climatenewsnetwork.net/forest-restoration-can-turn-the-clock-back/

Mongabay: https://news.mongabay.com/2016/08/deforestation-a-lingering-legacy/

Job One for Humanity: http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/zombie_carbon_emissions_haunt_the_planet

Europa Press: http://www.europapress.es/ciencia/habitat-y-clima/noticia-deforestacion-tropical-produce-impactos-zombie-20160728185357.html (in Spanish)

Austrian Broadcasting (ORF): http://science.orf.at/stories/2788098/  (in German)

Radio EcoShock: http://www.ecoshock.org/2016/10/siberia-ablaze-in-september-another-sign-of-climate-chaos.html

EcoAmericas:  http://www.ecoamericas.com/en/story.aspx?id=1717