Dr Isabel Rosa

Lecturer in Environmental Data and Analysis

Location: Room G1, Thoday Building, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University

Email: i.rosa@bangor.ac.uk

Phone:+44 (0)1248 383642

Web: LinkedIn, ResearchGate, GoogleScholar, Twitter

Welsh Crucible 2019: http://www.welshcrucible.org.uk/isabel-rosa/

Research Support for students and staff

Are you struggling with quantitative methods in your research project? Would you like to discuss GIS or statistical methods with someone very keen on these topics? Send me an email and let's have a chat!

View Dr Isabel Rosa’s profile on the Bangor Research Portal

Qualifications

PhD: Computational Ecology
Imperial College London,
BSc: Forestry
University of Lisbon,
MSc: Natural Resources Management
University of Lisbon,

Overview

I am a landscape ecologist with an active research programme on land use and land cover change modelling at multiple temporal and spatial scales.

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) driven by rapid human population growth and increasing demand for agricultural and forest products has far-reaching implications. To assess and monitor changes in biodiversity, climate, ecosystem services and ultimately human well-being, LULCC is an essential layer of information that is used in a wide range of applications: species distribution modelling, risk assessments (e.g., floods, fire), ecosystem services change (e.g., provision, regulation and cultural), epidemiological studies (e.g., spread of infectious diseases), landscape planning (e.g., new dams or roads), agricultural and forestry productivity estimates (e.g., yields), among others. My active research programme is on developing and applying novel tools that can help policymakers know where and at what rate LULCC is occurring and is expected to occur under future scenarios, thus allowing them to anticipate its impacts, and develop preventive and/or adaptive measures. I am to use these tools to address critical conservation issues, such as understanding the impact of changing socio-economic dynamics (e.g., the peace agreement in Colombia); supporting the implementation of conservation and restoration policies (e.g., ecosystem restoration subsidies); and the planning of future infrastructure developments, with a strong emphasis on involving key stakeholders in the modelling process. Furthermore, the need for accurate LULCC projections and scenarios is validated by the focus of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), particularly the Scenarios and Models Expert Group, with whom I have been working. My research is highly interdisciplinary, and I have forged research collaborations with colleagues from across scientific disciplines (in particular: physical sciences, statistics, socio-ecology, computing, machine learning, conservation, remote sensing, and biodiversity), institutions and countries.

The main goal of my research is to inform day-to-day decisions made by landscape managers and policy makers that can impact the sustainability and dynamics of landscapes worldwide, with particular focus on sustainable management of living natural resources. This is critical to address some of the greatest challenges of our world, such as climate change and sustainable food systems, in the perspective of continued human population growth.

Teaching and Supervision

PhD Supervision

2020 - ongoing: Rija Khan "Studying the impacts of increased Carbon Dioxide levels on habitat of Snow Leopards in Asia using RS/GIS techniques"

2020 - ongoing: Harry Skinner "Altered states: Will multi-use landscapes (forest-agriculture mosaics) allow the long-term survival of a forest specialist primate"

2019 - ongoing: Oboh Satur Okosun "The effect of fragmentation on ecosystem service delivery across a precipitation gradient – using geospatial technologies for sustainable development in Nigeria"

Internal Examiner

Lucia Watts

Theresa Bodner

Katie Davenish

MSc supervision

2019-2020 Ashley Webb "Investigating deforestation and thresholds of biodiversity impact in Colombia"

2019-2020 Olef Koch "Using species distribution modelling to assess food security (a case study in Africa using Enset)"

2019-2020 Angela Muthama [distance learning] "Using Ecological Niche Modelling to determine the ecological requirements and geographical occurrence of Phragmanthera spp. a woody parasitic plant in Rift Valley ecoregion of Kenya"

2019-2020 Steven Elton [distance learning] "Assessment of the factors affecting lowland mixed broadleaved woodland priority habitat quality: a case study a at Fountains Abbey and Studley Royal estate, National Trust"

2018-2019 Michael Thomson "Current and future roads threaten biodiversity in Colombia"

2018-2019 Gloria Triguero "Spatial relationship between intensity of armed conflict and forest cover change in Colombia"

Interns (undergraduates)

2020 Patrycja Lackowska "Investigating trends and patterns of sand mining expansion in Brazil" , funded via Employability Scheme at Bangor University

2019 Mollie Kirk "Investigating trends in road network expansion in a biodiversity hotspot", funded via Employability Scheme at Bangor University

Teaching

Undergraduates

DXX-3028 Land Use & Conservation [module organiser]

DXX-2000 GIS & Research Methods [contributor]

BSX-1030 Practical Skills 1 [contributor]

BSX-1031 Practical Skills 2 [contributor]

BSX-3701 - Honours project [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

SNS Academic Tutorials Module [tutor]

Postgraduates

DXX-4257 Research Planning and Communication [contributor]

DXX-4999 MSc Dissertation [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

DDL-4999 Distance learning disseration [contributor as project supervisor and marker]

Organiser of three introductory R workshops for postgraduate students:

BangoR1 - Introduction to R
BangoR2 - Data visualisation in R
BangoR3 - R as a GIS
BangoR4 - Automation in R

Research Support for students and staff

Are you struggling with quantitative methods in your project? Would you like to discuss GIS or statistical methods with someone very keen on these topics? Send me an email and let's have a chat!

Postgraduate Project Opportunities

I welcome enquiries from prospective PhD students with, or attempting to obtain, funding

Publications

2020

PublishedAlternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses
Martins, I. S., Navarro, L. M., Pereira, H. M. & Rosa, I., Jun 2020, In : Global Ecology and Conservation. 22, e01028.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedChallenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services
Rosa, I., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C. A., Uurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Martins, I. S., Popp, A., Schipper, A. M., van Vuuren, D. & Pereira, H. M., 1 Jun 2020, In : Global Ecology and Conservation. e00886.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedDrivers and projections of vegetation loss in the Pantanal and surrounding ecosystems
Guerra, A., de Oliveira Garcia, F., Ochao-Quintero, L. M. O., Tarso Sanches deOliveira, P., Guariento, R. D. & Rosa, I., 1 Feb 2020, In : Land Use Policy. 91
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedGlobal patterns of forest loss across IUCN categories of protected areas
Leberger, R., Rosa, I., Guerra, C. A., Wolf, F. & Pereira, H. M., Jan 2020, In : Biological Conservation. 241, 108299.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedGlobal vulnerability of soil ecosystems to erosion
Guerra, C. A., Rosa, I., Valentini, E., Wolf, F., Filipponi, F., Karger, D. N., Nguyen Xuan, A., Mathieu, J., Lavelle, P. & Eisenhauer, N., Apr 2020, In : Landscape Ecology. 35, 4, p. 823-842 20 p.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2019

PublishedChange versus stability: are protected areas particularly pressured by global land cover change?
Guerra, C., Rosa, I. & Pereira, H., Dec 2019, In : Landscape Ecology. 34, 12, p. 2779-2790
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedPathways of human development threaten biomes’ protection and their remaining natural vegetation
Rosa, I. & Guerra, C. A., 19 Sep 2019, In : bioRxiv.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2018

PublishedA protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
Rosa, I., 2018, In : Geoscientific Model Development.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedEvaluating Forest Protection Strategies: A Comparison of Land-Use Systems to Preventing Forest Loss in Tanzania
Rosa, I., Hopcraft, G. & Rentsch, D., Dec 2018, In : Sustainability. 10, 12, 16 p., 4476.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2017

PublishedAn ensemble of spatially explicit land-cover model projections: prospects and challenges to retrospectively evaluate deforestation policy
Bradley, A. V., Rosa, I. M. D., Brandao, A. J., Crema, S., Dobler, C., Moulds, S., Ahmed, S. E., Carneiro, T., Smith, M. J. & Ewers, R. M., 1 Dec 2017, In : MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT. 3, 4, p. 1215-1228
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedMultiscale scenarios for nature futures
Rosa, I. M. D., Pereira, H. M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L. A., Akcakaya, H. R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A. M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K. A., Harrison, P. A., Hauck, J., Hendriks, R. J. J., Hernandez, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S. I., Kim, H., King, N., Kok, M. T. J., Kolomytsev, G. O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C. J., Marquez, J. G., Meyer, C., Navarro, L. M., Nesshoever, C., Ngo, H. T., Ninan, K. N., Palomo, M. G., Pereira, L. M., Peterson, G. D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A. M., Seppelt, R., Settele, J., Sitas, N. & van Vuuren, D., Oct 2017, In : Nature Ecology and Evolution. 1, 10, p. 1416-1419
Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate
PublishedSpatial and temporal dimensions of landscape fragmentation across the Brazilian Amazon
Rosa, I. M. D., Gabriel, C. & Carreiras, J. M. B., Aug 2017, In : Regional Environmental Change. 17, 6, p. 1687-1699
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2016

PublishedClassification success of six machine learning algorithms in radar ornithology
Rosa, I. M. D., Marques, A. T., Palminha, G., Costa, H., Mascarenhas, M., Fonseca, C. & Bernardino, J., Jan 2016, In : Ibis. 158, 1, p. 28-42
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedSimiVal, a multi-criteria map comparison tool for land-change model projections
Bradley, A. V., Rosa, I. M. D., Pontius, R. G. . J., Ahmed, S. E., Araujo, M. B., Brown, D. G., Brandao, A. J., Camara, G., Carnerio, T. G. S., Hartley, A. J., Smith, M. J. & Ewers, R. M., Aug 2016, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 82, p. 229-240
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedThe Environmental Legacy of Modern Tropical Deforestation
Rosa, I. M. D., Smith, M. J., Wearn, O. R., Purves, D. & Ewers, R. M., 22 Aug 2016, In : Current Biology. 26, 16, p. 2161-2166
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2015

PublishedModelling land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon: temporal changes in drivers and calibration issues
Rosa, I. M. D., Purves, D., Carreiras, J. M. B. & Ewers, R. M., Jan 2015, In : Regional Environmental Change. 15, 1, p. 123-137
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedThresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes
Ochoa-Quintero, J. M., Gardner, T. A., Rosa, I., de Barros Ferraz, S. F. & Sutherland, W. J., Apr 2015, In : Conservation Biology. 29, 2, p. 440-451
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2014

PublishedThe transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models
Rosa, I. M. D., Ahmed, S. E. & Ewers, R. M., Jun 2014, In : Global Change Biology. 20, 6, p. 1707-1722
Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article

2013

PublishedPredictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Rosa, I. M. D., Purves, D., Souza, C. J. & Ewers, R. M., 18 Oct 2013, In : PLoS ONE. 8, 10
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedUsing landscape history to predict biodiversity patterns in fragmented landscapes
Ewers, R. M., Didham, R. K., Pearse, W. D., Lefebvre, V., Rosa, I. M. D., Carreiras, J. M. B., Lucas, R. M. & Reuman, D. C., Oct 2013, In : Ecology Letters. 16, 10, p. 1221-1233
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2012

PublishedChanges in Size of Deforested Patches in the Brazilian Amazon
Rosa, I. M. D., Souza, C. J. & Ewers, R. M., Oct 2012, In : Conservation Biology. 26, 5, p. 932-937
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2011

PublishedAtmospheric emissions from vegetation fires in Portugal (1990-2008): estimates, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis
Rosa, I. M. D., Pereira, J. M. C. & Tarantola, S., Mar 2011, In : Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 11, 6, p. 2625-2640
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
PublishedGreenhouse gas emissions from shifting cultivation in the tropics, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Silva, J. M. N., Carreiras, J. M. B., Rosa, I. & Pereira, J. M. C., 18 Oct 2011, In : Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres. 116
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Other Grants and Projects

2019-2021: "The missing link: incorporating the role of biological diversity into projections of ecosystem services.", supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the National Science Foundation DBI-1639145, co-PI

2018-2020: “Global Land-use Patterns and Changes – Mapping Key System Drivers for Integrative Biodiversity Science” funded through the Flexpool scheme of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), co-I.

2016-2018: “Using Land Cover Change Models to Address Important Conservation Issues (LCCMcons)” funded through Marie Curie Individual Research Fellow at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, Germany, PI.

2010-2013: PhD Scholarship: 3-years and 3 months PhD Studentship from Microsoft Research of Cambridge and Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London.