United Kingdom and European economic, inflation and interest rates outlook in a global (particularly US, China, Japan) context.
After surging to double digits, inflation has fallen sharply and is heading back towards central banks’ targets. However, there are big questions over how difficult for central banks the “last mile” of getting inflation back to target might be.
With monetary policy restrictive in many jurisdictions, financial markets are pricing in rate cuts for 2024 – in some cases back below neutral again – as inflation moderates.
Economies have performed remarkably well bearing in mind what they’ve had to contend with over recent years (surging prices, wars, pandemic etc).
Recessions have generally been avoided, though economists are more pessimistic about countries long-run growth prospects (due to demographics, climate change, productivity, de-globalisation).
In general – if we assume inflation ultimately returns to target, the most important question in my mind is: what combination of interest rates and economic growth will be needed to keep inflation at target? There’s a good chance that the trade-off might end up being worse (i.e. slower growth, higher interest rates) than in the past.
The Bangor University Alumni, George Buckley, will look at how economies are different post-pandemic than they were previously. George will also talk about the fiscal policy ahead of the UK election, and what a Labour versus Conservative government might look like from an economist’s standpoint.
George Buckley is Nomura’s Chief European Economist. He has twenty-five years of experience as a market economist previously working for Deutsche Bank, London, in a similar role. Before that, George completed his PhD in housing market economics at Bristol University, where he also taught undergraduate courses in macroeconomics. He holds an MSc in Economics & Finance (Bristol University) and a BA in Economics (Bangor University). George is the Chair of the Society of Professional Economists (SPE) and a published author (What You Need to Know About Economics, Capstone).
This lecture will be given in English.
Refreshments will be available after the lecture.